Apollo 14 astronaut Dr. Edgar Mitchell has been interviewed recently on a British radio program and claimed that UFOs are real and confirmed the so-called Roswell incident.
Dr. Edgar Mitchell for years has been a UFO proponent I don't see how that would change NASA opinion which officially is mute of the issue. I guess like Dr. Edgar Mitchell there are some NASA staff that hold the same advocacy as Dr. Mitchell.
Personally, I do agree NASA will in the future provide evidence or add evidence find that support life forms do exist in our solar system just not the same kind that Dr. Mitchell eludes to.
Frankly...what intelligent being would want with Earth and its inhabitance? I mean, if this intelligence mastered intergalactic voyages for any length of period no doubt they have categorized a fly-by (undetected) our solar system with Earth as a component not worth the expense-yet.
Besides would it be friend or foe? If it's as foe we aren't on the menu-yet.
Interesting interview...I don't really know what to make of it...
Personally, as someone who has extensively played the 'what if game' with the Drake Equation, some of the most optimistic assumptions put the nearest likely E.T. civilization at somewhere between 100-300 light-years from us, and more likely 500-1000 light-years...
An announcement that we have in fact, been "visited." I don't know...it seems almost incredible.
I have written and said in the past "...[that] the statistical processes of chemistry [and the laws of physics] which led to the rise of life here on Earth are not unqiue in the universe. Ergo, life must also not be unique to us. Therefore, life must also have arisen elsewhere in the universe..." Depending upon what parameters you plug into the Drake equation based on optimistic, pessimistic or neutral assumptions, you can end up with thousands of civilizations in our galaxy at this instant or only one. The probabilities involved are of necessity educated guesswork--
The tone of the interview, to me atleast, is not particularly surprising. If intelligent aliens are visiting us, clandestinely, and we are interesting enough to be studied, then perhaps this means that we are not as completely unlike them as it would seem.
Perhaps our rather sudden (abrupt) rise from primarily agrarean, horse drawn society, to full fledged nuclear and petroleum powered, industrial complexity has caught the interest of someone else out there...afterall, we did go from horse drawn carriages and steam locomotives to 75 ton flying machines dropping nuclear bombs in less than 50 years. In less then 25 more years, we sent our flying machines to the moon and walked upon its face. In less than a century we went from initial experiments with radio to partially reusable manned spacecraft--amazing progress for me to concieve, and I live here! So it is possible that we may be interesting enough for study...
And I have to agree with Dr. Mitchell: if their intent was hostile, then we would already have been defeated. The likelihood of loosing surprise in attack from a prolonged period of active probing of the defenses leads me to believe that any military organization (terrestrial or otherwise) intent on attack would have done so decades ago...therefore, it is likelier that there intent is peaceful.
As for the 'interview' from NASA: the public affairs guy was certainly caught off guard. NASA is not in a good position to refute anything that the "Heros of Apollo" say, so it takes the much 'safer' tack of saying precisely nothing. It is better to say nothing than risk embarrasment at this stage of the game...
I've kind of explored some of these scenarios. Mathematically speaking there are only three possibilities here, although not of equal probabilikty: 1) Friendly contact; maybe covert or overt, but meetings are friendly or generally benign. 2) Indifferent; meetings are rare. No real attempt at contact. Reconnaissance covert, probably from a distance. Or no effort made at all. 3) Contact is Hostile. Intent is to actively probe defenses to determine weaknesses, and then exploit those weaknesses for...what? Conquest...?
One of the things about the Drake equation that bears explanation. If civilizations are common throughout the galaxy, then the probability of two neighboring civilizations being at the same approximate technological 'epochs' is pretty low. It is much higher probability that two adjacent civilizations will be at very different levels of technological development--perhaps thousands or even millions of years in difference. Even if civilizations are rare, it is much higher in probability that two civilizations will be very different in their technological epochs than if they are approximately the same. Since we are a very young civilization, ergo, our neighborhs are much more likely to be very old compared to us. So I tend to favor the second contact scenario: Indifference as the highest probability contact scenario.
There may be mild or token curiosity about us, but that's about it. I tried to imagine what we may have to offer a civilization that has been 'advanced' for a million years: what could we offer them? We are talking about a greater technological gulf than what seperates us with our current technology and the Neanderthals who used fire to harden the points on their spears to take down mammoths. What kernels of truth and wisdom could the mammoth hunters give us? Of what use would a 35mm Nikon SLR cammera be to a Neanderthal? Completely different worlds...this is why I tend to believe that if contact is ocurring, it is probably clandestine and it probably is mostly from a distance.
We should take a look at some of the liberation points to see if there are any anomolous objects there...maybe something large like an optical telescope pointed at the Earth...
One thing that needs explanation about the last scenario: Hostile Contact. If beings that are advanced enough to cross the gulf between the stars can come here, what do we have to offer that they would want? Living space? Resources? Any civilization with the energy and resources to be an interstellar civilization does not need anything we may have. Ergo, interstellar war is probably exceedingly rare. Ergo, the last scenario is the least probable of all. Whew! Sorry "Independance Day!"
I guess there are two different issues here: 1) is the general idea of contact with other civilizations in the universe and 2) the specifics that Mitchell seems to be talking about. Much of Ty's comments are directed toward the first. Michell is clearly endorsing no. 2, i.e. the Roswell UFO senario that has develoed over the past 61 years.
If #2 is true...big if, then we have some idea of what is going on and it doesn't fit the reasonable concepts in case no. 1. It's really an X-files type scenario of some sort. One thing to consider it just how big an operation attack a planet is. Certainly they kill up by the billions ...maybe even exterminate us. Why do that unless they want to inhabit the planet? Perhaps they are trying to improve us. Certainly the case no. 2 implies a lot more than indifference. It seems they really come to our solar system in large craft that then deploy small disk shaped craft that fly around and even bring some human specimens on board for examination. And, this has been going on for decades.
In this case what Mitchell is claiming is that the government (actually most governments) have decided to cover up what they know of these activities. In this theory the ETs had an crash back in 1947 (and several more at later times) and the government recoved the debrits (and bodies). So they really KNOW. It seems to me to be a bit incredible that this could be kept secret for 60 years. Of course it isn't really a secret as we are discussing it. The secret is only that it is true (in this scenario). Once this is released things that make good fiction are assumed to have a sea change effect how people react. It would really get to the human ego!
When I first saw a news article on this, I thought that Mitchell was saying that he had been officially briefed on UFOs by NASA as prepartion for his Moon mission. After all if there was this big cover up NASA would want their astronauts blurting out in open transmission about a UFO, etc just in case they saw one up there. However, what he is really saying is that some of the Roswell base officers involved in the 1947 even told him their stories in the 1980s at about the same time the UFOligists were told about it. This reduces the stories credibility a lot.
On what I'm calling case no. 1 ...real aliens. I think that it all depends on what the unknown laws of nature are. That is unknow to us. It seems to me that there is a plateau of knowledge somewhere in the future. The question is are we near it or is it way out there? Is faster than light travel possible or is the speed of light really the limit? Can we tap "zero point" energy or is nuclear fusion the final energy source? Are "reactionless" space drive possible or as the just sci fi BS? The answers to these questions and others world greatly shape our views on this.
For example if cheap and very fast FTL is possible then these older civilizations will have it and flying to Earth could be very easy. ETs zoologists might study Earth life like Marlin Perkins studied the "Wild Kingdom" or maybe even manipulate it like the hyper-advance aliens in "2001" did. The point is just about anything could be true in that case. If on the other hand there no really big physics discoveries left that will generate propulsion technology then we shouldn't expect any visitors!
If #2 is true...big if, then we have some idea of what is going on and it doesn't fit the reasonable concepts in case no. 1. It's really an X-files type scenario of some sort. One thing to consider it just how big an operation attack a planet is. Certainly they kill up by the billions ...maybe even exterminate us. Why do that unless they want to inhabit the planet? Perhaps they are trying to improve us.
I really don't know too much about the UFO stuff, but thinking along the lines of an X-file script. I would think the next scenario up from total indifference toward our species by aliens would be the enslavement scenario.
And if you were to poll humans about gov't enslavement of some degree (i.e. taxes, laws etc.)most would say that's a distinct possibility. Aliens could have come and gone and installed a hierarchy mindset that most humans live under of varying degrees presently.
For what purpose??
To return and later integrate with other species the aliens have made into slaves because this alien specie is at war or some economic competition with other alien species.
In any case it all spells slavery to me. Whether I'm under a homo sapien slave master or an alien specie slave master.
I'm still the freakin' slave and that's not fair!!
case in point see the li'l alien dude behind Bush in video.
Yeah, I see the little guy. Do you think he is telepathically controlling President Bush? Perhaps that explains the halting speech pattern that is so often mentioned.
Mitchell was on Fox News tonight. In addition to the Roswell Base people he claims to have spoken with a vice admiral at the pentagon on intelligence staff in 1997. The admiral claimed to know nothing about a group working UFOs but promised to look into it. Later he (according to Mitchell) reported that there was a group working on UFOs but when he tried to find out what it was doing, he was told that he didn't have a need to know.
My take on this is that IF we actually share our Solar system with "ET" then..
1) They got here using techniques that we are reasonably familiar with (IE No magic technology)
Given #1 I conclude that.
2) They got here using a starship that took the resourses of their homeworld and centuries to construct! IE Its construction would have been an act of desperation not curiosity!
From that I conclude that they made a BIG mistake, they DIDNT expect to find us here and they are now in Deep ****! (even supposing they are still alive!)
I would not expect to have to "repell borders" anytime soon and if we found any of their equipment I doubt if we would find anything that we could not understand and eventually reverse engineer.
Some of that I agree with, Dusty. Although, the resources needed to construct something like this depends greatly upon:
1) Their level of space industrialization and infrastructure. If their home system has asteroids like ours (not unreasonable to assume, I think) then their resource investment isn't necessarily all that great.
2) Mission duration--i.e., longer mission times will necessarily require bigger vessels. If suspended animation or hybernation is not possible, then years-long or decades-long trips will require city-sized vessels (or larger): i.e., you send a colony and not just a crew. Consequently, the mission may be considered one-way. However, whether or not they can leave is entirely dependent upon how much infrastructure they have brought with them. If I was designing a mission, the vessel would be large enough to exploit any resources found within the destination system so that repairs, refits, and refueling can be accomplished and the mission either continued, or a return to the home system could be accomplished. Of course, this depends upon THEM thinking like US: we value the individual enough to place the crew's well being and survival high enough to think in terms of safety and survival. Insects may not place such value on the individual, and may see an individual as completely expendible.
3) It seems reasonable that given the necessity of considering the physical limits imposed by the known laws of the universe, such a mission would in all likely hood: be nuclear fusion powered; travel slower than the speed of light: probably around 0.2c or less; be large enough to support a small colony of individuals; would bring enough industrial infrastructure to support resource exploitation at the destination system, and support the necessary manufacturing and fabrication base to provide for necessary repairs, refits, and refueling operations as needed; and be armed, if only lightly. If they value the individual as we do, then it seems reasonable that minimal defensive efforts would be made if only to ensure the survival of the temporary colony...
So, given these considerations, I would imagine that such a vessel constructed for human habitation, designed to sustain its inhabitants for a mission distance of say 10 light-years, or something a little more than 50 earth years in duration one way would require the support of several thousand or so individuals. The number of individuals needs to represent a good, healthy cross-section of the original population if they are to remain healthy upon arrival. I don't think 10,000 individuals is out of the question--this is about the population of a small town...
This is a space colony sized population, and would require a space-colony sized ship. The ship will need to rotate to provide simulated gravity for the well being of its inhabitants, so something like a Stanford Torus ought to do well. So we are talking about a ship with a diameter of around 6 km already. Mission part of vessel will be several hundred million tons. Now toss in fusion fuel for acceleration and deceleration and cruise power generation, and we're talking an easy billion tons or so.
It would require decades of sustained effort, but this is not unreasonable for a civilization with fusion and space solar power and space resources to tap. It only requires the will to do it...
Any reasonably technologically advanced species could do it. We aren't quite there yet ourselves, but we can imagine it; and so we aren't really that far away ourselves...
My take on this is that IF we actually share our Solar system with "ET" then..
1) They got here using techniques that we are reasonably familiar with (IE No magic technology) I'm not exactly sure where you are going with "share" but if we are talking about what Dr. Mitchell is addressing then I'm not sure how you can be sure that our science/techology is anywhere close to theirs. I'm not saying if I believe him and if I had to bet I'd probably think that he is wrong. However, if the widely reported UFO vehicles really exist I don't have a clue how they work based on anything in my physics textbook! I'm addition they number of sightings number into the thousands and of at least 61 years (probably more). It seems to me that the there is a little more to discover in physics. (I had an exchange with Ty elsewhere on here recently in which was taking your side of the argument. http://www.activeboard.com/forum.spark?forumID=33011&p=3&topicID=18664288)
I tend to agree that if they don't have FTL (because it's impossible?) then they probably are operatiing from a multigenerational spaceship in our solar system. Taking Dusty's general assumptions (with the caveats above) we could be at great risk. If they really want our planet then they might need to get rid of us and if the capabilities are limited they want to make sure they don't fail. However, our capabilites have grown greatly while they have been waiting.
I have some doubts that our planet would be of any great use to them. Basically H.G. Well's got this right in "War of the Worlds". Our best defense is the biosphere in which we live. Could an alien life form live unprotected in our biosphere? I doubt they would actually get Earth diseases like in the book but open exposure to all of our germs, bacteria, enzymes, etc. would probably do them in!
Yeah, I see the little guy. Do you think he is telepathically controlling President Bush?
I don't think 'they' would need to.
The alien would suffice to explain directly to president Bush that they could manufacture events or cause events to happen that would aid in presenting a favourable historical light on U.S. gov't or to him individually.
Show me a gov't or gov't leader that would turn down a proposal like that.
But I think this happens 24/7 with or without the Lil alien dude.
It's called arrogant power projection.
..They got here using a starship that took the resources of their homeworld and centuries to construct! IE Its construction would have been an act of desperation not curiosity!
If anything they would have gotten to our solar system with the old fashion reasoning. They either were looking for resources that needed to be found for necessity or wealth creation. It wouldn't necessarily be because of just desperation.
How they got to our neighbourhood?
-They learned a long time ago that being able to survive is hardwired into their consciousness.
-They're an organism (genes) able to adapt to any condition and survive.
-They're able to work in cooperation with anyone or individually.
-You don't need a generational spacecraft to accomplish colonization (it would help). You do need to live, breed and thrive off of different environments (interstellar habitats).
-No doubt they worked at investigating and implementing ways of manipulating their physics to a purposeful advantage: real interstellar transportation.
Each of these points are interchangeable with humans.
Any successful alien species that propagates itself the most and has the most colonies and the space infrastructure system to support it-wins.
My idea is if humans really do support a celestial infrastructure system our chances of coming in contact with real ET's will happen in the process of constructing this celestial infrastructure. The chances are less if we 'sit on our ass' on earth doing nothing and expecting contact by default.
Besides, first contact is less risky for the species as a whole when it is done at a remote outpost.
In the past, I have entertained my natural 'hardwired' paranoia, and amused myself by exploring notions like hostile first contact: the solar system is a very big place, and there are plenty of places in ours to hide a city-sized spacecraft without us noticing. Something smaller, like the size of an aircraft carrier, could be almost indetectable, especially if it practiced EM discipline. Covering the surface of the spacecraft with asteroidal regolith would make it look to radar and infrared to be like an ordinary space-rock.
Parking a spacecraft in one of the Earth-Sun libration points such as the one on the far side of the Sun would make it impossible for us to detect it by direct observation. Sticking one in the Earth-Sun L4 or L5 would almost assuredly make us think it was merely an asteroid trapped in that quasi-stable point...
Only if we saw something anomolously shiny, under acceleration, or menuvering in an obviously unnatural manner, or witness a brilliant drive flare, would we detect that something artificial was there. We have difficulty detecting our own spacecraft, and we generally know where they are!
"Weekend press and blog reports have claimed that NASA representatives have briefed the White House over the space agency's plan to announce major new discoveries concerning the Phoenix Lander's discoveries for the potential for life on Mars."
The sooner the myth the solar system and Universe is a vacant lot and no life can exist beyond Earth is dispelled the more apt a public would be to at least entertain possibilities exist beyond earth.
While it remains to be seen if there is life any where else in the solar system, I seen no reason to doubt that it exist elsewhere in this vast universe. If the conservative view that we are approaching a scientific plateau is true then we are unlikely to encounter intelligent life anytime soon given the vast abouts of time and energy it takes to cross the interstellar void.
On the other hand what is being suggested by Edgar Mitchell is that they are already here, in large numbers (thousands of visits by the smaller craft), and have been around for at least 61 years. That would imply that either a very unlikely thing has happened (they got here inspite of the difficulties) or that we are far from a scientific plateau in physics, i.e. some real surprises are in store that will impact space propulsion.
Of course this whole thing hangs on the controversial Roswell story and the testimony of man about a conversation with a high ranking officer in the Pentagon 11 years ago. I know that a few of the people involved with the 509 Bomber Group have made statements that there was a crash. But, have any others from that group come forward to deny it?
...what is being suggested by Edgar Mitchell is that they are already here, in large numbers (thousands of visits by the smaller craft), and have been around for at least 61 years.
I don't agree with Edgar Mitchell's UFO alien visit and the gov't cover-up; why just 61 years ago? 'cause by inference major scientific advances happened during this period??
I think it's a story by an imaginary generation that this story still has legs.
I suppose there is an immeasurably small possibility he is correct.
I just don't believe him. Besides the scenario cheapens human achievement