One thing the article doesn't mention is Japan's development of small nuclear reactors for powering remote (including lunar) settlements, designed for unattended self-regulating & load-following operation, based on the sodium liquid metal cooled fast neutron design.....

Aviation Week & Space Technology, 11/28/2005, page 64

Frank Morring, Jr. and Michael Mecham, Tokyo

Japan's new Aerospace Exploration Agency, the two-year-old combination of three formerly separate organizations now known by the acronym JAXA, has an ambitious vision for the next 20 years. But like its counterparts in other spacefaring nations, its vision is clouded by the uncertainties of domestic politics and international space-exploration planning.

At home, the space agency's budget continues to decline even as it works out details of a schedule it hopes will secure Japan's place in a full-time lunar base by 2025. Abroad, Japan's near-term space program depends heavily on NASA's ability to launch all three components of the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) for the International Space Station.

Like NASA, JAXA is far from assured that its funding needs will be met. The budget has dropped from a high of 226 billion yen ($1.9 billion) in 1999 to 176 billion yen ($1.5 billion) this year. JAXA administers Japan's Information-Gathering Satellites, which serve a military reconnaissance role, but their funding is separate from its budget (see chart).

JAXA hopes there will be a bump up to 200 billion yen for fiscal 2006, which begins Apr. 1, and eventually the agency would like to see that figure approach 300 billion yen per year. It will be up to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, in his role as head of Japan's Council for Science and Technology Policy, to decide.

"He is the chairman of the STP, and he has to decide at the end of the year about the phasing of the plan," says Kaoru Mamiya, JAXA vice president. "We'll know at that time."

As the No. 2 official at JAXA, Mamiya played a key role in drafting "JAXA 2025," the agency's big new vision for the future. JAXA officials stress that the document is only a proposal, intended as a starting point for discussion within Japan and with its international partners. But the vision, and a related study headed by former NASA Administrator Daniel S. Goldin, mark a focused effort within Japan to strengthen its space and aviation activities for the long term.

In 2003, stung by a string of space failures and convinced of the need for a strong aerospace industry to compete in the world marketplace, Japan's government merged the old National Space Development Agency, Institute of Space and Aeronautical Science and the National Aeronautics Laboratory to create JAXA (AW&ST June 9, 2003, p. 34).

The problems continued after the shuffle. Japan lost two reconnaissance satellites to a failure of its medium-lift H-IIA booster; the second Advanced Earth Observation Satellite (Adeos II) failed in orbit, and the Nozumi Mars probe didn't achieve its proper orbit around the red planet and went into a useless solar orbit instead. By the summer of 2004, the Japanese agency sought some outside help, setting up the Advisory Commission for Mission Success to get some ideas on how to improve its batting record.

Chaired by Goldin and including former heads of the French and German space agencies in its membership, the commission held hearings in Japan before issuing a report in March. Its first recommendation was to create "a single shared vision and strategic plan that addresses the concerns of JAXA stakeholders and is consistent with approved resource plans." Japan's Space Activities Commission, which advised the cabinet, had already reached similar conclusions.

ALSO RELEASED in March, the JAXA 2025 document calls for achieving world-class status in five areas--space science, security, space infrastructure, space industry and aeronautics. Space science covers everything from orbiting telescopes to outer-planet probes, but human lunar exploration is key.

"Maybe after the Moon we will go to Mars," says Masao Shirouzu. He is senior adviser to the director of strategic planning and management at JAXA headquarters. "But our first priority is on the Moon."

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The JAXA vision calls for a steady program of robotic lunar exploration, starting with the planned Selene high-resolution orbiting mapper and moving on to enabling technologies for lunar exploration such as precision landing, high-capacity communications and space solar power (AW&ST Oct. 24, p. 17). By 2015, JAXA plans to seek a decision from the government on "whether to take significant steps forward in the technology development and construction of facilities toward the establishment of an international human lunar base."

One "significant step" would be development of a human-rated launch capability. JAXA is already taking a preliminary look at working with Russia on the planned Clipper human launch system (AW&ST Oct. 10, p. 32). But its managers have not ruled out upgrading the H-IIA rocket to carry not just the planned unmanned H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV) but human crews as well.

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JAXA astronaut Soichi Noguchi, who drew high marks for his work outside the shuttle Discovery on STS-114, faces an uncertain future in space as Japan struggles to find its vision.Credit: NASA

"We don't have a carrier for [sending] a man to the Moon, so for the moment we have to rely on the carrier of the U.S. or Russia," says Mamiya. "But gradually we want to acquire the necessary technology, so that we can build our own capability by the end of 20 years."

JAXA already has a cadre of eight astronauts, including spaceflight veterans like Soichi Noguchi and Chiaki Mukai. Noguchi performed three spacewalks outside the ISS during the STS-114 shuttle return-to-flight mission last summer, while Mukai--a heart surgeon and the first Japanese woman to fly in space--conducted life science work on two shuttle missions in the 1990s. Japan's astronauts are preparing to operate the JEM module, but their expected career paths are at least temporarily in doubt while NASA and JAXA negotiate a revised launch schedule in light of new plans to retire the space shuttle in 2010.

NASA's rapidly changing space exploration plans have also gotten ahead of Japan's robotic space mission planning. Despite President Bush's emphasis on lunar exploration, JAXA has yet to coordinate fully its own lunar effort with the emerging U.S. plan. Discussions are underway to avoid duplication between the U.S. Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and Japan's Selene lunar orbiter, which probably will arrive at the Moon at about the same time (see p. 67). But it's likely too late to include U.S. instruments on the Japanese spacecraft.

"When our side started its planning, there was very little interest on the U.S. side about the Moon, so we went too fast before they realized this," Mamiya says, noting that Selene and follow-on lunar missions probably could provide about half of the data NASA would need to plan for a human lunar return.

In the JAXA civil-space vision statement, "security" means a satellite-based Earth-observing, monitoring and warning system to mitigate the effects of natural disasters and environmental pollution. But as the Japanese government's sole space-development organization, JAXA is also lead agency for the cabinet-level effort to develop military reconnaissance satellites. While officials like Mamiya stress that the spacecraft can also be used for civil purposes, their development is funded separately and officially does not add or subtract from JAXA's budget topline.

PLANS CALL for launching two replacement reconnaissance satellites--one using optical sensors and one using radar--next year. In a report on the Japanese space program, the Rand Corp. found prospects for significant budget increases for JAXA "remote" in the near future, but "one area that may, however, see continued and possibly increased funding is Japan's nascent military/intelligence space program, depending on the Japanese leadership's perception of trends in regional security in Northeast Asia and elsewhere."

Although it remains unclear how Koizumi's government will respond to JAXA's vision statement, it has taken a more pro-military stance than has been possible in the past, going so far as to propose revising the pacifist constitution drafted during the postwar U.S. occupation of Japan. "We should make it clear that maintaining a force for self-defense is not against the constitution," Koizumi says.

The Rand report faulted the past JAXA practice of acting as prime contractor and system integrator on space projects, saying it has held back Japanese industry from developing marketable space experience. The vision document calls on JAXA to boost the space industry, chiefly by guaranteeing it more work. But Mamiya says the agency is also moving toward giving industry a larger role in developing new space systems, starting with work on the H-IIB upgrade by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI).

"We already signed a basic agreement with MHI, so gradually we are transferring our technology to the industry as far as launching rockets," he says. "And we want to apply that to satellites too, so gradually we want to transfer the integration portion to a company."

While most of the emphasis within JAXA is on space, like NASA the Japanese agency also has an aeronautical component. Its vision document targets demonstrating technologies for "Mach 5-class hypersonic aircraft" in about 20 years. Under the plan, JAXA would also continue developing Mach 2 supersonic aircraft technology with subscale tests like one conducted on a sounding rocket in Woomera, Australia, last month.

Much of the JAXA 2025 document draws on the report of the Goldin mission-success commission, which called for a better match between goals and resources and set out various management concepts--for example, creating a chief engineer--that Goldin implemented at NASA. The Goldin report also drew on lessons of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board, which called for institutional changes to encourage employees to highlight problems "without fear of reprisal."

Although much of its content reflects the views of its chairman, the mission-success panel's report drew on the "One NASA" concept pushed by Goldin's successor, Sean O'Keefe, as well. Noting that Japanese space managers have had trouble merging the three parent agencies into "One JAXA," the Goldin commission urged them to apply "time and patience."