Aviation Week & Space Technology, 09/26/2005, page 22
Frank Morring, Jr., Washington
In 1962, President John F. Kennedy rallied Americans to back his goal of putting a man on the Moon before the end of the decade, and they did. Whether citizens and Washington lawmakers will support a proposed return is questionable in an era of competing domestic programs, a costly war on terrorism and ballooning federal deficits. A detailed, inside look at NASA's ambitious plan is described in "Moon-Bound, Again." Articles on propulsion technology that could be employed in the new Moon mission (p. 24) and the challenge for contractors competing to replace the space shuttle (p. 26) follow, as does a thought-provoking guest commentary (p. 28) and editorial (p. 70). Artist concepts of mission elements are from NASA/John Frassanito & Associates.
Mars may be the ultimate target, but continued strong U.S. leadership in human spaceflight is the stated goal of NASA's tightly focused new plan for lunar exploration.
A rigorous scrubbing over the summer held the cost of a return to the Moon as a first step to the Red Planet to what NASA says is 55% of the cost of the Apollo program in inflation-adjusted dollars.
Still, despite making lavish use of hardware developed during the past 45 years, it will cost an estimated $104 billion to keep the U.S. in the critical path back to the Moon by 2020.
That's a breathtaking number, even when spread out over two decades. And the "go as you pay" approach set by the Exploration Space Architecture Study (ESAS) outlined last week also leaves plenty of room for international and commercial players to add their money in the years ahead.
The plan has already been targeted by conservative Republicans looking to pay the massive hurricane recovery bill coming due. NASA Administrator Michael D. Griffin defends the price tag as the cost of maintaining the "strategic" U.S. ability to send humans into space after the shuttle is retired at the end of 2010.
Briefing reporters on the results of the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS), Griffin compared spending on NASA to spending on the Air Force or Navy. NASA is looking to powerful backers like House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R-Tex.) for protection, and the America-first argument has already paid off in Congress this year.
"The House passed by a very wide margin a bill that said we want to go ahead and do this, and the Senate presumably will pass a bill relatively soon that will do the same," says David Goldston, chief of staff of the House Science Committee. ". . . At this point I haven't seen Congress say 'oh, we shouldn't be doing this because we've got these other expenses.'"
NASA's expenses will be spent on Earth, at its field centers and traditional contractors with long-standing support on Capitol Hill. The plan also includes seed money for a complete new commercial space industry. Griffin says the space agency will launch a procurement "this fall" to stimulate commercial resupply and ultimately crew delivery to the International Space Station (ISS), drawing on a $500-million wedge in NASA's funding proposal for the purpose (AW&ST Sept. 5, p. 31).
The new approach also invites international partners to follow the ISS model in developing hardware and support for human exploration of the Moon and ultimately Mars. While the ISS partnership remains roiled by the potential impact of the Columbia accident on the ultimate station configuration, would-be partners certainly don't want to shut the door on the new opportunity to explore. Indeed, Europe's EADS and Alenia are already working on the planned Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) as members of competing U.S.-led contractor teams (AW&ST Jan. 31, p. 28; Feb. 7, p. 30).
"We respect that in the critical path to space, NASA and the U.S. want to be autonomous," says Gerhard Thiele, head of the European Space Agency astronauts and operations unit in Cologne, Germany. "It is too early to tell [but] once the dust settles. . . . I'm sure we in Europe, where we have great strength in scientific endeavors, will find opportunities to cooperate on the Moon program."
The lunar launch vehicle Griffin is pushing--actually two versions of the same concept--is based to a large extent on propulsion technology developed for the space shuttle (see p. 24). It was chosen to hold down costs in meeting President Bush's space policy by making maximum use of existing technology and infrastructure.
While the near-term focus of the ESAS plan aims at reaching the Moon by the summer of 2018, an integral part of the space transportation architecture to get there is a new methane-fueled rocket engine that was included solely with Mars exploration in mind, according to Douglas Stanley, a member of the aerospace engineering research faculty at Georgia Tech brought in by Griffin to lead the ESAS team of exploration experts.
Basically the architecture can be divided into three parts--a near-term effort to replace the space shuttle in the existing space infrastructure; expansion of that infrastructure to the lunar surface, and an eventual push on to Mars that is so undefined that there isn't even a date for a Mars mission.
"We've not gotten out that far in our planning," Griffin says.
In the near term, NASA expects to award a contract by April 2006 for a CEV capable of carrying as many as six astronauts to the ISS and four to the Moon. Dubbed "Apollo on steroids" by Griffin, the solar-powered CEV will include a crew capsule, a service module carrying the new methane engine and a solid-fuel pull-off tower for crew rescue. Two contractor teams--one led by Lockheed Martin and the other by a Northrop Grumman/Boeing combination--have been working on the project since July 11, and will refine their original CEV proposals to meet a "call for improvements" set for release next month that will incorporate the ESAS results (see p. 26).
In parallel with the CEV development, NASA intends to start work on the first of two shuttle-derived launch vehicles that have been widely discussed in concept. The Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) would carry the CEV toward orbit atop a single shuttle booster consisting of four segments as in the shuttle stack. A new upper stage, to be competitively developed beginning early next year, would use one space shuttle main engine (SSME) to finish the ascent.
Beginning as early as 2012, the CEV/CLV stack would begin flying from the existing shuttle launch pads at Cape Canaveral, taking crew to and from the ISS. The CEV would also be able to carry as much as 7,000 lb. of pressurized cargo to the station or 25 metric tons of unpressurized cargo to a "station-compatible orbit" in automatic mode.
As the CLV development starts wrapping up in mid-2010, the new plan calls for NASA to begin developing the three additional spacecraft it will need to send humans back to the Moon. Again, shuttle hardware will be critical, starting with the SSME. Selected for its relatively light weight and high performance compared to other engines available, a cluster of five SSMEs would propel a 125-ton-class lunar heavy lifter that will get lunar mission infrastructure into orbit.
The engines would ride at the bottom of an extended version of the shuttle external tank, and two five-segment versions of the shuttle solid boosters would provide added lift. Plans call for both the CLV upper stage and the lunar heavy lifter to be built at the Michoud Assembly Facility on the outskirts of New Orleans, where the shuttle external tanks are built today.
At the same time, NASA would begin developing a four-seat lunar lander, and an Earth-departure stage that would take it to the Moon along with the CEV. Design of the lander is still highly notional, Griffin says. But it would use a throttleable version of the LOX/hydrogen RL10 engine to descend to the lunar surface, and ideally the methane-fueled CEV service module engine to return to lunar orbit.
THE EARTH-DEPARTURE stage would be powered by two simplified versions of the J-2 LOX/hydrogen engine that powered the upper stages of the Saturn V moon rocket during the Apollo program. It would serve both as an upper stage on ascent, and be restarted to begin the three-day trip to the Moon.
If all the developments come together on schedule, by the summer of 2018 NASA would be ready to launch four astronauts on the first lunar landing mission since December 1972. The "one-and-a-half launch" concept would see the heavy lifter put the lunar lander and Earth-departure stage in orbit, followed within 30 days by the CEV/CLV with the crew. The CEV would dock to the top of the lander, and the departure-stage engines would be reignited to send the crew on the way to the Moon, riding backward.
Once in lunar orbit the entire crew would descend to the surface in the lander, leaving the CEV in orbit. Unlike Apollo, which was restricted to the lunar equatorial regions, the new lander would be able to reach any point on the Moon's surface, including the poles where water ice may lie hidden in deep craters. The first surface stay would last seven days, although the CEV could remain in lunar orbit for as long as six months while its crew worked below.
At the end of surface operations the crew would fire the methane engine and return to a lunar-orbit rendezvous with the CEV. The notional plan calls for leaving airlocks and other hardware and consumables on the descent portion of the lander that could later be used to build up a human-tended lunar base.
In orbit the crew would dock with the CEV, discard the lander for eventual impact on the surface, and fire the service module methane engine for the return to Earth.
NASA has specified a parachute recovery after the ballistic CEV capsule reenters the Earth's atmosphere, but the agency will leave it up to the contractors to propose how to handle touchdown on dry land, probably at a military range in the West. The vehicle must also be able to handle a water landing.
In addition to the human return to the Moon, NASA envisions a parallel program of robotic lunar exploration that will include the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter already underway and at least one robotic lander after that. While NASA would retain ownership over all hardware needed to get humans to the Moon and back, the ESAS plan envisions international participation along the lines established in the ISS program.
Those include sharing data from robotic lunar surveys; cooperation on developing surface habitats, rovers and equipment for power, logistics and science.
THAT SAME MODEL would apply for an eventual mission to Mars. NASA's initial idea is to use a 100-metric-ton-class heavy lifter like the shuttle-derived lunar heavy lifter to send four or five assembly flights to low Earth orbit. It would also be used to start pre-positioned habitat, power, communications and an ascent/descent vehicle on their way to the planet.
Six crewmembers would make the 180-day round trip in a dedicated crew transit vehicle, and spend 500 days on the surface exploring, conducting scientific investigations and extracting oxygen, water and methane from the environment. The CEV now under development would still be around, held in Earth orbit to return the crew to the surface at the end of their mission.
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World News & Analysis
Moon Plan Requires Mix of Old, New Rocket Engines
Aviation Week & Space Technology, 09/26/2005, page 24
Frank Morring, Jr., Washington
Shuttle main engine, solid boosters baselined in Moon plan, along with new methane rocket
Rocket engines from across the history of the U.S. space program would power NASA's new exploration plan, along with a new development that could draw its fuel from the atmosphere of Mars.
Planners on the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS), released last week, chose the Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne space shuttle main engine (SSME) and the ATK reusable solid rocket motor (RSRM) to do the heavy lifting on the way back to the Moon. The idea was to save the time and money of new development.
But one new concept--a methane-fueled rocket--is central to President Bush's January 2004 order to move human exploration out of low Earth orbit (LEO) and use the Moon as a stepping-stone for a trip to Mars. U.S. enginemakers will be asked to build a pressure-fed engine that burns liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid methane, first to power the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) under development to haul astronauts around the Earth-Moon system (see p. 26) and later to blast them off the surface of the Moon.
Ultimately, NASA hopes to produce methane fuel on Mars to save weight on the outward journey to the red planet. That way, a mature version of the engine originally developed for the CEV and lunar lander could be applied to Mars exploration as well.
Although XCOR Aerospace Inc. of Mojave, Calif., tested a 50-lb.-thrust attitude-control engine that burns liquid methane in August, and Aerojet built gaseous-methane thrusters for the aborted X-33 testbed, there has been no large-scale methane-engine development in the U.S.
"Aerojet's done some stuff with NASA Marshall about 15 years ago, but that was larger thrust and there was more workhorse equipment," says Todd Neill, chief engineer for space exploration at the Sacramento-based propulsion house. "So I think the whole U.S. industry is on a pretty steep learning curve with methane propellant at this point."
ESAS planners would like to see industry develop a dual-use methane engine in the 15,000-lb.-thrust class. The engine could get a thorough shakedown in LEO on CEV missions to the International Space Station starting in 2012 and, if successful, could be considered reliable enough to serve as an ascent engine on the lunar lander beginning in 2018.
As a backup, the exploration plan allows for hypergolic engines in both applications if a workable methane engine isn't available. Although final CEV procurement plans won't be released until next month at the earliest, the two contractor teams already working on the new vehicle--headed by Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman/Boeing--are expected to be asked to include a methane engine in their designs for the CEV service module.
The CEV contractors will also need new solid-fuel rocket motors for the escape system that would pull the crew off its launch vehicle and out of the way during an ascent catastrophe. ATK and Aerojet are expected to compete for that work as well, but ATK already has the big solid-fuel exploration element in the bag with the RSRM.
The Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) for the CEV will consist of a single, four-segment RSRM topped by a new upper stage. Once the CLV is developed, NASA plans to turn its attention to a shuttle-derived heavy lifter that uses two five-segment RSRMs as strap-on boosters. ATK has already tested the five-segment version on the ground (AW&ST Nov. 3, 2003, p. 17).
Power for the CLV upper stage and the core stage of the heavy lifter will be supplied by the SSME. The ESAS team chose a single SSME for the new upper stage, modified for ignition at altitude, and a cluster of five for the heavy lifter. The SSME version for the CLV is essentially already flying on the space shuttle fleet.
"What we will be doing there is basically a test program to validate and verify our new start box, because we'll be starting two minutes into flight," says Steve Cook of Marshall Space Flight Center, who was in charge of launch vehicle planning on the ESAS team. "What we've got to look at there is the engine thermal conditioning, the engine pre-start purging, and what the engine start sequence is. It's been looked at twice in a good bit of detail in about the last 10 or 12 years."
Because it won't be needed until well into the next decade, there will be room for improvements to the SSME used on the heavy-lift vehicle. Coatings needed to protect engine parts over multiple shuttle missions may be eliminated in the throwaway single-use heavy-lifter version, says Byron Wood, president of Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne; and cost savings can be achieved by using the hot isostatic press (HIP) process developed for the RS-68 engine to craft the combustion chamber and perhaps the nozzles.
"The key thing in all of those proposals will be the tradeoff between what you spend for recurring costs for a throwaway engine versus the nonrecurring costs to recertify a new process," says Wood.
Even without improvements, Wood sees a "significant reduction" in the cost of an SSME when the Canoga Park, Calif., factory begins producing them at the planned rate of six a year. The plant currently produces the equivalent of one a year in spare parts, he says. The exploration program will also save money by using up the almost 30 engines in the shuttle program, either on orbiters or as spares and support hardware.
Two venerable U.S. rocket engines round out the hardware in the ESAS plan. For descending to the lunar surface the team baselined a throttleable RL10-class LOX/hydrogen engine like the RL10A-5 engine used on the DC-X and DC-XA testbeds in the 1990s. And to get to the Moon, the team picked the latest version of the Rocketdyne LOX/ hydrogen J-2 that powered the Saturn V upper stages. Tested on the ground for about 31,000 sec. but never flown, the 265,000-lb.-thrust J-2S was simplified with a tap-off design to eliminate the gas generator on the J-2.
Two J-2S engines would power the Earth-departure stage launched atop the shuttle-derived heavy lifter. They would fire once to complete the ascent to LEO, and later be restarted to push the lunar lander and CEV to lunar orbit.
Aviation Week & Space Technology, 09/26/2005, page 26
Frank Morring, Jr., Washington
NASA narrows field for CEV competitors
Contractors bidding to replace the space shuttle fleet must stuff their big ideas into a ballistic capsule with only three times the volume of the Apollo command module.
Like that 1960s-vintage capsule, the planned Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) will sustain a crew as it travels to and from the Moon. But it must also convey the first Mars explorers on the last leg of their trip back to Earth someday, and it will start its career shuttling crew and pressurized cargo to the International Space Station (ISS).
"Think of it as Apollo on steroids," says NASA Administrator Michael D. Griffin.
To address congressional concerns about the gap in U.S. human space access after the shuttle retires in 2010, Griffin and the team he has assembled since taking office in April have scrapped the CEV competition approach drafted under his predecessor, Sean O'Keefe. Instead of a "spiral development" with contractors pushing their CEV concepts to a limited fly-off in 2008, Griffin wants to pick a winner by the end of March 2006 and start flying in 2012.
To get there, NASA will issue a "call for improvements" next month to the two CEV teams already selected under the original approach--Lockheed Martin's and a Northrop Grumman/Boeing team with alternating leadership (AW&ST June 20, p. 46). Details are getting a final scrub from procurement experts, but Griffin says the agency will seek a capsule 5.5 meters in diameter, up from Apollo's 3.9 meters. It will weigh about 50% more than the Apollo version and be able to carry as many as six astronauts or as much as 7,000 lb. of pressurized cargo when launched on the shuttle-derived Crew Launch Vehicle (see p. 22). In emergencies, it could be depressurized while its spacesuited crew use umbilicals for extravehicular activity to deal with an external problem.
In keeping with Griffin's desire to maintain an all-U.S. system, the vehicle will have a new androgynous docking mechanism furnished by NASA to replace the Russian system that has been used on joint missions in one form or another since the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project in 1975.
Developed by James L. Lewis of Johnson Space Center, the Androgynous, Reconfigurable Closed Loop Feedback Controlled Low Impact Docking System (LIDS) is similar to the Russian system, but with the ability to mate with other active LIDS units and with modern electronics to trip its latches for a softer docking impact.
If it hasn't already been delivered by the space shuttle, the first CEV flight to the ISS probably will carry an adaptor for the new mechanism that will be left behind at the U.S. docking port there. The CEV will include a cylindrical service module, again on the Apollo model, and be at least partially reusable for 5-10 landings. Those are baselined for Edwards AFB, Calif., or another military range in the West, but with the backup capability for water landings in an emergency.
The vehicle would descend to Earth on a parachute system, but contractors will decide how they want to handle surface contact--retro-rockets, airbags, Soyuz-like seat shock absorbers or other techniques. NASA wants the vehicle to be solar powered.
"We will be specifying the capabilities that the system has to have and we'll be specifying the outer mold line [and] things like the level of radiation protection that we want," Griffin says. "We will be specifying a particular docking system. Most of it, however, will still be left to the design discussion of the contractors."
Lockheed Martin had already disclosed plans to build a lifting-body CEV (AW&ST May 9, p. 32), and NASA's decision to go with a capsule sends its engineers back to the proverbial drawing board. John Karas, vice president of space exploration for Lockheed Martin, says his CEV team started changing its configuration last summer, right after it won its CEV contract, based on preliminary signals from NASA.
"For three months now we've been working the blunt-body-shaped, Apollo-derived capsule," he says.
Karas says the transition to a capsule should be fairly straightforward, with most of the work underway at teammates Honeywell, Hamilton Sundstrand, Orbital Sciences and United Space Alliance essentially unchanged.
"Even the structure's design manufacturing technology and methodology still hold true," he says. "We've just got to change shape."
Lockheed Martin will draw on its experience with unmanned capsule-shaped entry systems dating back to the Mars Vikings of the 1970s. For its part, the Northrop Grumman/Boeing team together can trace its aerospace heritage back to most of the work that went into the Apollo program's manned elements, including the command module, and was already working on an update.
"We have had for some time a viewpoint that this is a physics-driven issue, and that physics really have not changed since the approaches that were undertaken with Apollo," says Bob Davis, Northrop Grumman's director of business development for space systems. "So it was not perhaps a surprise to us that the outcome that was described by NASA is the direction that it seems to be headed [in]. We've looked at a lot of different concepts over time. We keep coming back to the one that works best. So we're headed in the direction along the lines of what you heard NASA talking about."
World News & Analysis
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Commentary
NASA Exploration Needs Basic Reforms
Aviation Week & Space Technology, 09/26/2005, page 28
Henry Vanderbilt
There's a big problem with NASA's exploration plan. It's the same approach as Apollo: mostly disposable spacecraft, on big NASA-proprietary boosters, flown a few times a year by a standing army of workers--but on a significantly slower schedule.
After 40 years of stunning technological progress, shouldn't we be able to improve on Apollo more than this? U.S. taxpayers will get little more Buck Rogers for their inflation-adjusted buck than they did in the 1960s. And we must remember, that's before the overruns and delays. This is still Old NASA; there's no radical organizational reform in this plan.
This Apollo redux has the same fatal flaw as Apollo: The specialized throwaway systems will be far too labor-intensive at far too low a flight rate to allow an affordable follow-up. The new ships are not only based in significant part on existing shuttle components and facilities, they are to be operated by the existing shuttle organization--tens of thousands of people narrowly specialized in various aspects of flying a handful of astronauts on a handful of missions a year. By the time all the fixed overhead is added up, it will cost billions of dollars a mission.
Like Apollo, NASA's new plan has built into it the seeds of its own shutdown by some future Congress, once the warm glow of the first few daring missions has once again faded--if this program gets that far. National pride in NASA has been taking a pounding lately. It may not survive many more blows. Once it goes, all bets are off in the Congress. This plan is far too dependent on NASA not shooting itself in the foot anymore over the next few election cycles. Going to the Moon, Mars and beyond depends utterly on reforming and restructuring NASA. It has been a long time since NASA successfully developed a big new rocket on schedule and budget. Attempting to go to Mars without fundamentally changing the agency that brought us the shuttle, space station and X-33 won't fly.
We have a great deal of respect for the people who devised NASA's latest plan. But it is the result, step by step, of accommodating NASA's existing constraints and structures and bad habits, rather than overturning them. There are potentially useful bits in the new plan, such as the flirtation with station resupply being put out to commercial bid. But there is a strong likelihood that that--along with other NASA non-manned-space functions--will be raided to pay for this plan's big upfront vehicle developments. What's more, commercial station resupply could turn into a tar baby as NASA sets impossible standards, until vendors go broke or go away. Station managers could then go to Congress saying "See, those amateurs couldn't hack it."
So, what should NASA do? Three things:
*Let go of controlling its own space transportation from start to finish. NASA should make an exploration plan based on a variety of existing commercially available boosters, then put the entire ground-to-orbit leg of deep space missions out to bid.
*Lay off large parts of the shuttle/station establishment as the shuttle winds down and the station is completed. Don't compulsively "keep the team together." It's been a long time since this team had a winning season and the game has changed. Rebuild from the ground up.
*Let go of arbitrary or dated prejudices the organization has accumulated over the years. Old NASA, as someone once said of an inbred royal house, forgets nothing and learns nothing.
Planning exploration missions for a variety of commercial boosters would do several good things. Most importantly, it would offer greater program reliability; if one booster has a problem, traffic can be switched to another without putting the whole program on hold for two years. Such an approach would require more launches and on-orbit assembly, thus more chances for one to go wrong. But most would be unmanned. And it would push NASA toward simpler, more modular systems with higher engineering margins. The agency could kick its habit of making everything lightweight, high-performance and tightly integrated to the point of unrepairability--all of which means expensive to build and hard to reuse. Commercial launchers would lower costs directly, as providers compete, and indirectly, as NASA takes advantage of the cheaper lift to allow more engineering margin in spacecraft designs. And it would reduce future costs even further, since newer, cheaper launchers could be phased in as competition makes them available.
Ultimately, the biggest benefit of using more economical and flexible operations is that there will be a far better chance that NASA will be able to conduct manned deep space exploration. After 40 years of progress, we can and should do better than this exploration plan for which NASA seeks a sizable slice of national resources.
Henry Vanderbilt of Phoenix is the executive director of the Space Access Society, which promotes radical reductions in the cost of reaching space. A longer version of this piece is at www.space-access.org
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Editorial
New Space Plan Covers All The Bases, Make It Work!
Aviation Week & Space Technology, 09/26/2005, page 70
Heeding President Bush's call after the Columbia accident for something beyond the space shuttle and International Space Station, NASA finally has a new plan for sending humans beyond Earth orbit to explore the Solar System (see p. 22). Technophiles that we are, we find it reassuring that the plan was unveiled not with the inflated rhetoric of a politician but with the logic of an engineer and the caution of an accountant. As one admiring observer suggested to us, the pieces of this blueprint fit together like the movements of a Swiss watch.
Perhaps, but will the American public be able to tell what time it is? NASA's plan, which calls for returning astronaut crews to the lunar surface no sooner than 13 years from now, may be viewed not as "Apollo on steroids," as Administrator Michael D. Griffin insists, but as a slow-motion rerun of glories past. That would be a shame, because an initial review suggests the plan is a reasonable, affordable approach drawn with an eye on the eventual prize (landing a crew on Mars). And it is without the damn-the-torpedoes approach that leads to runaway costs--and, eventually, to programmatic collapse. That's what happened when the administration of President Bush's father took aim at a similar target 15 years ago.
So, this administration seems to have avoided the first rocky shoal in the sea of public opinion. But to keep things going, it will need to sail clear of other obstacles, and there probably will be some that are not mapped on NASA's charts.
An immediate threat is the old bugaboo about whether the U.S. can afford human spaceflight when it has serious problems on the ground. It is a false argument, of course, but one not easily dismissed. And now some people are presented a Hobbesian choice of whether to assist victims of Gulf of Mexico hurricanes or go to the Moon. It would be a colossal blunder for Congress to sacrifice this long-term program in the name of recovering from Katrina and Rita--not to mention bitterly ironic, given that thousands of contractor and NASA employees responsible for U.S. manned spaceflight work in the Gulf Coast states. It makes no political or technological sense to pit hurricane victims against NASA.
Still, no one should give NASA a blank check, even if the agency can fit the exploration initiative within its overall budget projections. NASA must hold up its end of the deal by developing the new Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and launchers within the existing space shuttle funding envelope. In doing so, the agency also should forge reform in federal space program procurements, so often botched in the past.
The new launch and spacecraft infrastructure could be called "Darwin's Aerospace Theory," as it is predicated on the belief that evolution often works better than revolution. It works in aviation, too. The only really extraordinary step off the evolutionary path in transport aircraft was the Concorde--like the space shuttle an unquestioned marvel, now benched as the shuttle also heads for phase-out.
The failure to follow that principle 35 years ago was the fundamental mistake NASA and the Nixon administration made in casting a post-Apollo space program. Rather than junking the magnificent Saturn V, NASA should have evolved the design. And when national policy called for a space station, Skylab was a fine first step.
Another false choice, but one that NASA must watch carefully is that of human spaceflight versus robotic exploration. Many studies have shown that the two complement each other. But there always will be a short-term temptation to short-change highly productive space science missions as the transition from shuttle to CEV puts financial pressure on the agency and its contractors. Putting unmanned science missions at risk could undermine support for human voyages.
One key program is already in jeopardy. There is no backup for the nuclear-powered Mars Science Laboratory rover that is scheduled for launch in 2009 to sample the potentially life-related carbon-cycle on Mars. One key lesson from the highly successful rover program now operating on Mars is that two spacecraft, although somewhat more expensive, not only double the science and halve the overall landing risk, but together they are key to maintaining schedule and quality control under NASA's more robust "test-as-you-fly" mantra. The managers for Spirit and Opportunity believe they may not have gotten even one rover off the ground with just a solo hardware effort. That is a cost/success lesson that must carry into the CEV exploration initiative at all levels.
But why undertake an ambitious new manned program at all? NASA's plan appears to answer decades of congressional and broader criticism of the agency's efforts. As the shuttle departs, the CEV plan offers a new competitive path for major commercial space opportunities. There is no good reason why commercial inflatable structures like those from Bigelow Aerospace--already fostered by a Bigelow/NASA technology partnership--shouldn't form the basis for extended lunar surface habitats. And why shouldn't large but simple new boosters, such as those envisioned by Elon Musk at SpaceX, be given a chance to help propel this new manned flight infrastructure?
Moreover, NASA's new plan would help keep the U.S. competitive technologically in a critical arena. Some may dismiss the idea of "the world's only superpower" being challenged in space. But consider the following:
*An advanced technology demonstrator is in orbit around the Moon taking striking images of the lunar surface. It is European.
*A $100-million spacecraft 200 million mi. from Earth has used autonomous navigation and other cutting-edge technologies to park directly beside an asteroid. It is returning striking images and preparing to deploy a camera-equipped rover and return samples to Earth. It is Japanese.
*Two astronauts are preparing to launch in October on a new manned spacecraft tied to a national effort to grow tens of thousands of math- and science-savvy young people and boost their nation's prestige in the world. They are Chinese.
Also quite simply, space exploration--human and robotic--is of vital national importance. Nearly 100 years after Roald Amundsen and his Norwegian team set foot upon the South Pole, interest remains high in the Antarctic. Now there are permanently manned outposts there. Why should it be any different on the Moon, 50 years after Apollo 11?
Nice plans, I really hope NASA will get foundings!
But I just wonder one thing. They talk about returning to the Moon as a step before going to Mars. But to me, it would seem more reasonable to explore first the near-Earth asteroids. They are easier to reach and to land on, and they would surely provide much scientific information, and give us precious experience of humans in far-space missions.
Maybe is does not sound "great" enough to the public...
....the near-Earth asteroids... are easier to reach and to land on
At Mars you can use aerobraking to put yourself into orbit, thus saving a great deal of earth-departure propellant mass. Obviously, this is not possible with asteroids.
— Bringing Japan's most complex space mission near its climax, a probe is within 12 miles of an asteroid almost 180 million miles from Earth in an unprecedented rendezvous designed to retrieve rocks from its surface. The Habayusa probe sent back this image of the 'Itokawa' asteroid. Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency via AP
The Hayabusa probe, launched in May 2003, will hover around the asteroid for about three months before making its brief landing to recover the samples in early November. The asteroid is located between Earth and Mars.
"The mission is going very smoothly and proceeding as planned," Atsushi Wako, a spokesman for JAXA, Japan's space agency, said Tuesday.
The asteroid, informally named Itokawa, after Hideo Itokawa, the father of rocket science in Japan, is only 2,300 feet long and 1,000 feet wide, and has a gravitational pull one-one-hundred-thousandth of Earth's.
Though it took two years to get there, the asteroid is among the closest neighbors to Earth other than the moon.
The probe's first mission will be to survey the asteroid with cameras and infrared imaging gear. It has already begun sending back images, Wako said.
When Hayabusa moves in for the rendezvous, expected to be over in a matter of seconds, it will pull up close enough to fire a small bullet into the asteroid and collect the ejected fragments in a funnel-like device. It won't be coming back with much — the amount of material planners hope to capture wouldn't even fill a teaspoon.
JAXA officials say Hayabusa would be the world's first two-way trip to an asteroid. A NASA probe collected data for two weeks from the surface of the Manhattan-sized asteroid Eros in 2001, but it did not return with physical samples.
Despite a glitch with one of Hayabusa's three gyroscopes, the mission has been largely mishap-free. Wako said the probe is set to return to Earth and land in the Australian outback in June 2007.
The success of the mission so far is a major coup for JAXA.
Japan was the fourth country to launch a satellite, in 1972, and this spring announced a major project to send its first astronauts into space and set up a base on the moon by 2025.
JAXA already has an unmanned moon survey mission planned. Its SELENE probe — originally scheduled for launch in 2005, but since delayed — is designed to orbit the moon, releasing two small satellites that will measure the moon's magnetic and gravitational field and conduct other tests for clues about the moon's origin.
It had to abandon a mission to Mars two years ago, however, after the probe moved off course. The explosion of a domestically designed H-2A rocket, the centerpiece of the country's space program, in November 2003 also marked a major setback for JAXA's plans. Controllers had to detonate that rocket and its payload of two spy satellites after a booster failed to detach.
The failed launch came just one month after China successfully put its first astronaut into orbit. Beijing has since announced it is aiming for the moon.
Japan returned to space in February with a successful H-2A launch, after 15 months on the ground.
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Interesting! I believe that japanese "modesty" coupled with their tenacity and efficiency could give good long-term results in space exploration.
Does not that show that asteroids are easier to reach than Mars? As far as I know, not a single mission aimed at returning samples from Mars has been attempted. Maybe the whole trick is to be able to catch up with the asteroid at the good point in its trajectory relative to Earth. Also, another aspect is actually launching from Mars, where one has to fight a great deal of gravitation.