Actually oil has been used for longer than a few centuries. throughout the middle east wells of "Naft safeed" (Sp???) occuur where almost clear petrolium seeps to the surface and forms small pools. this has been used as lamp oil for millenia and quite possibly in the occasional conjuring trick!

(Remember your bible stories? Abrahams competition with the priests of Baal involving a sacrifice on the mountain? Not only was the alter built on the top of a mountain where lightning strikes were likly, he also helped it allong by pouring "Water" all over it as well!! )

However, back to googlenauts comment.

I predicted some years ago, as a bit of a joke initially, but I suspect I am correct that;

a)     We will still be producing oil in 500 years time,

b)     It will not sustain much above 100$/Bl

The reasoning for this is that, for a), there are fields in the middle east now that have 500 year predicted life at current extraction rates and for b), if oil SUSTAINS above 100$/Bl then other alternatives will be exploited

However, To mention economics it to imply that mere money will somehow overcome declining oil production. It is not so simple and it wont! 

Not many people realise that a well goes “dry” when as little as 20% of the oil has been extracted. Its just that you get to the point that it takes more energy to extract the oil than the extracted oil contains.

Many small oil wells are already operating beyond this break even point becase the oil they produce is more vauable as a fuel than the electricity used to operate the pumps

The Canadian tar sands are close to this energy neutral category. It may still be worthwhile extracting “unprofitable” petroleum (from an energy POV) long into the future if an abundant alternative, non-fossil source of energy is available to pay for it (Nuclear??) but as a SOURSE of energy, petroleum’s days are definitely numbered.

It is no surprise to me that, at least some, of the world’s big oil and gas producers are pursuing nuclear programmes. It is not about procuring WMD’s it is, in the short term, a way of maximising their hydrocarbon resources for export, in the long term, possibly for providing the energy to extract "Unprofitable" oil or even ,in the longer term, who knows. Perhaps while we have been sitting on our hands worrieng about nuclear waste disposal the Arab states will have built thousands of reactors producing hydrogen to manufacture synthetic liquid fuel with which to replace declining oil production Thus maintaining their monopoly of energy supply.

I would if I were them!

The big problem as I see it though is that western government analysts seem to be asuuming that the end of the oil age either wont happen at all (Tar sand argument) or at worst will result from a slow steady decline in production that the "Market" will be able to adapt to. Unfortunatly I suspect that The trigger for the end of the oil age will be more likely to be a sudden political crisis rather than a steady, predictable decline in output with a corresponding steady, predictable rise in price. A sudden drop in output as small as 5% could have catastrophic effects that would be hard to cope with.

Immagine a 1973 oil crisis but one where the lights never come back on again, where the gas stations are closed for ever (Unless you are one of the privalaged few!)

As Philpum just said, is it happening now? Who knows! The problem is that by the time we are sure it will be too late to do anything about it. An economic enviroment similar to the 73 oil crisis with its rolling power cuts, fuel shortages and (in the UK anyway) the notorious 3 day week (there wasnt enough energy to work a 5 day one!) is not a good enviroment for developing and deploying a vast nuclear/chemical programme!

Dusty

think about what would happen in a major city like .....Los Angeles, San Francisco.....when there were no grocery stores to buy food; no garbage trucks to pick up trash; when no police, fire or ambulance come when someone calls.

I think what would happen is that all of a sudden, Californians would realise that drilling for oil off the coast of California might possibly not be as environmentally damaging as everyone thinks it is right now

http://www.theadvertiser.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,11580660%255E913,00.html
Demand set to rocket
By SUDEEP REDDY in Dallas, Texas
04dec04

EXPANSION of the global economy will increase energy demand by 50 per cent
over the next 25 years, creating major challenges for producers,
ExxonMobil Corp said yesterday.

Texas-based ExxonMobil's annual energy outlook said the 1.7 per cent
annual demand growth would be driven mostly by Asia.

The world's largest publicly traded oil company uses the annual long-term
outlook to plan projects expected to run several decades into the future.

ExxonMobil predicts widespread efficiency improvements and greater
diversification into nuclear energy and biofuels such as ethanol to meet demand.

But even as governments tried to spur the development of pollution-free
energy such as solar and wind power, ExxonMobil said those sources will
comprise only 1 per cent of the world energy supply by 2030.

"Ultimately, market fundamentals will prevail," said the company's general
manager of corporate planning, Alan Kelly.

"That means it's likely for hydrocarbons to remain the principal source of
energy for many decades to come."

Despite some concerns about the adequacy of global oil reserves,
ExxonMobil said the world had plenty available.
The planet has consumed about one trillion barrels of oil to date.
Most estimates put the world's proven oil reserves "those economically
recoverable today" at another one trillion barrels.
But the earth has more than six trillion barrels of conventional oil in
the ground, and several trillion barrels of unconventional supplies such
as oil sands.

The energy sector needs investment of US$200 billion a year to support
that supply growth, Mr Kelly said.

While that level is "likely and achievable" especially with new
technologies, he declined to say where prices would need to be to support
that level of development.

Mr Kelly said the company had faith in Saudi Arabia's ability to raise its
output capacity in the coming years to meet demand.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would need to
expand output each year by one million barrels a day. The cartel now
produces about 30 million barrels a day.

ExxonMobil also said:

GLOBAL energy demand would rise from today's equivalent of 220 million
barrels of oil a day to 335 million a day in 2030.

EXPECTED growth rate for the global economy was 2.8 per cent a year, the
same pace as in the last two decades, and world population would go from
6.3 billion to eight billion by 2030.

AMONG fossil fuels, natural gas demand would increase the most.

EMERGING Asian countries would account for half the demand growth.