Peak Oil Theory

iprimap · Veteran Member

Peak Oil Theory

GoogleNaut · Guru

I've been an active on the Downstream Ventures website on the ezboard.com. And conspiracy theories aside, peak oil is definately going to happen. The moment that demand exceeds supply, which has already been the case in various parts of the world including the U.S., then it becomes a seller's market. Price will fluctuate--but the overriding trend is to increase the price with time. Since most of our energy (atleast as far as transportation goes) is currently derived from petroleum products, then the price of transportation increases as well.

We need to immediately find ways of not just increasing efficiency or reducting consumption--these are bandaids at best--but we must engineer a substitute transportation energy infrastructure. This is no small feat--it will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, possibly trillions to do it right.

And as I have said many times on the Downstream Ventures website: this country (the US) exists as a spider-web of roads and highways upon which the bloodvessels of daily commerce travels. These are literally the arteries and veins of our economy as these trucks transport everything from food, fuel, spare parts, mail, and tennis shoes. Anything that affects the price of transportation has disproportionate repercussions throughout the economy. If transportation is the lifeblood of the economy, then petroleum is the basic energy source of that economy. A substitute must be created, or the economy will eventually collapse.

Philipum · Veteran Member

What about railways ? I have the feeling that Europe has an advantage over the USA in the sense that the infrastructure for train transporation already exists to some extent.

GoogleNaut · Guru

Europe has extensive railways, and makes extensive use of them. However, in the United States, an appreciable amount of rail miles have been allowed to fall into disrepair. In Northern California, we have a line of rail that runs north from Willits, through Eureka, and on to Orick that is in such bad shape that the entire line, tunnels, bridges and all must be rebuilt in order to certify it for passenger and heavy freight traffic. Various proposals have been made to revitalize this line, including extending it north to Oregon, East to Redding, and strengthening the rail ties to the greater San Francisco Bay Area. Unfortunately, the reinvestment required for this one line, probably near $200 million, will never be made because the economic gain is almost nill (the area is economically depressed because the three pillars of economy: logging, fishing, tourism, have all been winding down for 40 years...) And everytime any major company wants to relocate here, our County Board of Supervisors and local environmental groups find ways to so alienate them that now no one wants to invest anything up here... it's really sad.

Anyway, this isn't necessarily an isolated event. As far as rail is concerned in the US, there just isn't nearly the infrastructure that once existed. But expanding rail, and electrifying it, with a concurrent expansion in nuclear plant production could probably help a great deal. When the price of hydrocarbon based fuels reaches $20 per gallon, then anything with internal combustion engines will likely become luxury items, or museum pieces...

What concerns me most, is that typically the US will wait until the last possible second before initiating a crash project to do the job...unfortunately, the use of petroleum fuels is so intertwined with our consumptive culture, that a truly major, prolonged disruption in the natiuonal fuel supply with resulting price spikes could destroy the economy so thoroughly that recovery may no longer be an option. Disruptions of national transportation of food within the country could result in almost immediate widespread starvation. Remember, most grocery stores have only a 2 to 3 day supply of product---and then that's it.

It sounds unduly alarmist, but I fear the consequences will be far worser than most realize...