Major European Science Mission Cancellation Feared
Aviation Week & Space Technology, 12/05/2005, page 26
Michael A. Taverna, Paris and Toulouse
European space scientists fear cost overruns could doom major mission

European space scientists worry that they will be forced to pare back or cancel a major science mission--even if they obtain a funding boost at the Berlin ministerial summit this week--because of parsimonious disbursements in past years.
"If we put together all the programs approved, with their current launch dates, we find ourselves about 700 million euros short--equivalent to about two years' science spending at current levels," said Richard Bonneville, director of space exploration at French space agency CNES, following a meeting of the European Space Agency's science program committee in mid-November. Barring new funding, he suggested, one of the agency's big Cosmic Vision science missions may have to be sacrificed.
Speaking last week in the runup to the Berlin summit, ESA Science Director David Southwood said ensuring a stable budget line for science, with additional money from new members (Greece and Luxembourg) plus an extra 2.5% per year to cover inflation, would provide more margin for maneuver in the long run--for example, to fund new Jupiter and astronomy missions now on the drawing board (AW&ST May 16, p. 69).
However, the extra funds would provide little short-term relief. "We are paying for seeds sown in past years," complained Southwood, who was already forced to cancel the Eddington planet-finding mission and eliminate a lander from the Bepi-Colombo Mercury probe because of tight budget constraints (AW&ST Nov. 17, 2003, p. 38).
Aggravating the shortfall is the agency's current risk-averse approach that saves money up front--major missions are now expected to cost just 450 million euros, half the cost of previous ones--but tends to add costs later, when it's more difficult to turn things around, according to Southwood. A case in point is the Herschel-Planck mission, to be launched in late 2007, which is suffering from a 180-million-euro overrun.
A likely candidate for cancellation, Southwood hinted, is Bepi-Colombo, which is some 150 million euros over budget and has slipped two years to a 2013 launch. Another candidate is Solar Orbiter, set for 2014.
Gaia, a star-mapping probe, is a less likely target, as it is only 40 million euros over budget and is now set for launch in 2011, one year earlier than anticipated. Lisa--a joint gravitational wave mission with NASA to be launched around 2013--is also considered less of a target since a pathfinder flight was approved last year, for launch in 2009. However, according to Southwood, ESA's 200-250-million-euro contribution is currently insufficient to cover mission costs now that the U.S. role has been clarified.
Southwood says a decision must be made by the next science committee meeting in February. Selection of the prime contractor for Gaia is currently slated for December and issuance of a request for proposals for Bepi-Colombo, early next year.
He insisted that solutions could yet be found to prevent the ax from falling. For example, Russia is negotiating to launch Bepi-Colombo on a Soyuz booster if the mission can be modified to include a Russian lander. Although ESA is loath to make such a change at this stage of the project, the agency might be willing to do so if the solution is a "win-win one," says Southwood.