There seems to be a presumption within the US admin that since Iran is rich in oil any nuclear programme *must* be primerrily for the development of weapons technology.
This presumption is simply not valid.
Iran has a large population and a developing economy. her sourses of forign currency are few, appart from Oil and gas, all I can think of is caviar and dried fruit (Im not sure about carpets, I think export of carpets may be restricted.
A domestic nuclear power programme would greatly increace the ammounts of hydrocarbons available for export and consiquently increace the ammount of forign currency obtained. What is more Irans production is expected to peak by 2010 (not far off) and drop to half its current level by 2035. If Iran wishes to maintain energy security for herself (let alone maintain exports) she needs to be building reactors Just-as-fast-as-she-can.
But I don't think the issue is so much building of nuclear power plants, as it is building uranium enrichment plants. The latter really doesn't make much sense for a country that is barely starting to build its first reactor. There are lots of countries operating LWRs, that don't have their own enrichment plants -- among them Sweden, Finland, the Czech Republic, Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, Slovakia, Netherlands, Ukraine, Slovenia, Taiwan, Mexico, Armenia, South Korea, and I think even Japan (although they are building an SNF reprocessing and MOX production plant).
I'm convinced that the religious fanatics in Iran's government want the bomb. That can't be allowed to happen.
I too am more than a little suspicious of Iranian enrichment activities--given their past (and presumably present) hostility toward the West; given their propensity to support and sponsor international terrorism; given the fact that Pakistan, just on the other side of Afghanistan from Iran, has nukes.
I don't fear a nuclear armed Iran achieving nuclear parity with the West--not like the Soviets did during the Cold War. What I do fear is a culturally hostile Iran with religeous extremists at the reigns of power willing to share or sell (or otherwise disseminate) nuclear weapons technologies, materials, and support to anyone with an agenda hostile to the United States or the West in general. The wide disbursement of freely available weapons materials and technologies to all sorts of political and religeous extremists, rebels, or criminal elements is a recipe for the loss of several of our cities and the murder of millions of innocent people. Chaos on an almost biblical scale. Clearly this cannot be allowed or tolerated
I suspect that the Israelis will act first if they even think Iran could be a threat.
For those not familiar with the Bushehr NPP project in Iran, the photos in the file linked in the message pasted below are fairly interesting.....
From: radsafe-bounces@radlab.nl [mailto:radsafe-bounces@radlab.nl]On Behalf Of Gerry Blackwood
Sent: Wednesday, March 23, 2005 4:53 PM
To: Rad Safe
Subject: [ RadSafe ] FBIS PHOTOS OF IRAN'S BUSHEHR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
FBIS PHOTOS OF IRAN'S BUSHEHR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
The CIA's Foreign Broadcast Information Service has compiled a new gallery of photographs of Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant.
The photographs were taken from the Iranian Fars News Agency and from the Persian blog rasanic.com. The monitoring of blogs is a relatively new and fruitful expansion of FBIS coverage of world media outlets.
The CIA has not made the new FBIS compilation on Bushehr available to the public. But a copy was obtained by Secrecy News.
.........the plant certainly looks much better now, than it did after it was bombed by Sadam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war (at which time it was in an early construction phase).
It probably wouldn't have been a wise decision to complete & run the plant if Sadam were still in power today. Obviously, the Iranians owe the US thanks for making the project completion possible (don't hold your breath though....)
I wonder if Rumtsayev was shown, during his visit, any of the pieces of missiles that were left inside the plant after that Iraqi attack, bearing Cyrillic characters