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NUKE ROCKY44 · Senior Member

Oops...bear comes out of hibernation!

GoogleNaut · Guru

I feel bad for the Georgians--but I have to admit, I am very concerned with what's going here...

To what extent can the Georgians leverage their NATO treaty rights...do they have any to leverage?

The Ukraine issued its own warning to Russia: that if Russian Naval vessels leaving Black Sea ports leased to Russia by Ukraine interdict or blockade Georgian Black Sea ports, that any such vessels will not be allowed back into those ports...

Kind of a reverse blockade--which could really light up this regional conflict.

Is Ukraine a NATO signee yet--if so, could this escalate beyond the Black Sea?

Food for thought.

Ty Moore

10kBq Jaro · Senior Member

"expansionist-by-proxy" ??

....you're joking, right ?

Oddly, everyone seems know about neo-nazis, but opposition to neo-stalinism is excused as US expansionism ???

....boy, I though I heard the last of that when we left Czechoslovakia after the Soviet invasion in 1968.

As someone said a long time ago, those who don't learn from history, are destined to repeat the dreadful events....

-- Edited by 10kBq Jaro at 02:11, 2008-08-12

NUKE ROCKY44 · Senior Member

Well... presidential candidate Ron Paul has noted the behaviour of U.S. foreign policy is interventionist by nature and expansionist. With the largest overseas military in existence to date in the world.
For the last two decades anyone can see this has been carried out to the letter. If you look at the latest U.S. example of disproportionate use of military force in Iraq under false pretence ...it's rather unmistakable.

The problem comes when people still see the world through rose colored glasses and seem to think there are no consequences to policies that looks at this world as a place to push 'faux pluralist lifestyle' (two party-winner take all democracy) that is sold under a brand as the only alternative to the practise of true representative democracy.

I tend to think it's not a problem with Georgians but certain Georgian leaders that act as though they're onto a power grab on steroids.
The Caucasus lately is not the most politically stable region in the world today and add a huge oil pipeline in the mix and that usually spells trouble.

If you ask me political and economic stability arrives when you respect all the governments in a region and try to work out a compromise on trade that is beneficial to all governments in a particular region.

Personally in this particular case this is not RUSSIA=BAD and the EU/US=GOOD. This time the Russian gov't does have a legitimate point to make it responded to secure the safety of its citizens and the request of states in the region that felt threated by military force. Russia will probably neutralize the Georgian military forces and no doubt support Georgian opposition to Mikheil Saakashvili.

GoogleNaut · Guru

I think this issue is more complicated than at first it seems...

Apparently in this instance, the Geogians themselves initiated the hostilities by moving their forces into South Ossetia--the Russians responded, not in kind, but with overwhelming force: they moved nearly a whole armored division into both South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

This is probably a 'punishing attack' to punish the Georgians not only for this particular attack, but also for tacit, indirect support for Chechnyn seperatists north of North Ossetia--which is probably also why Russia will continue to hold a tight reign on South Ossetia.

It's a big mess, and there are a lot of ticked off people in close proximity who apparently can't stand each other.

It definately doesn't help that the US has openly discussed placing antiballistic missiles in close proximity to Russia: the US has had talks with both Poland and Ukraine about this. In my opinion this threatens (and already has started) bring the Cold War back. I don't know what Vladimir Putin's agenda is or was--the new Russian president seems to be following in his foot steps--but he has definately taken a hardline stance on many issues. The US seems to be aggrevating old animosities at every turn--it hardly seems that this would be in our (US) strategic interests to do that. I think blunder upon stupid blunder, compounded with a lack of understanding and a willingness to further our own (US) interests without regard to anything else has again brought us (the US) to this position.

What further worries me about this whole thing, is that apparently both IS presidential candidates (McCain and Obama) jumped in blindly in support of Georgia without a second thought--what does that tell us about their personal foreign policy agendas? We can ill afford to have another generation of stupid, short sighted, noncooperative US foreign policy. I wouldn't call it Empire building, because that implies some kind of an intelligent plan--it's more like the writhings of a sightless worm at times...anyways that's my two cents worth.

Ty Moore

-- Edited by GoogleNaut at 14:00, 2008-08-13

-- Edited by GoogleNaut at 14:01, 2008-08-13

NUKE ROCKY44 · Senior Member

Well, permit me to frame a debate:

Question:

Who were the noncombatant civilians shot first in the Georgian-Russian conflict?

Answer: Russian and South Ossetians.

I'm not a Harvard educated Internationalist gov't 'egghead' but anyone can see the current geopolitical melange is not working.

Former Warsaw Pac countries including Russia are running about like frantic chickens pecking at each other.

They should be creating alliances that can exhibit world leadership.

Take the Ukraine why is Kiev so estranged from Russia? These two countries together held massive power they worked as a team together under the communist banner. I don't understand now that old 'communist' alliance has been abandon they would elect to snipe and become adversarial.

I don't advocate going back to old commie style alliance, they should start exchanging some real proposals I'm sure they could come with a vibrant alliance that could really compete with the west hopefully on creating competitive markets, on the football field (athletics) or better yet on a race to colonize the solar system.

To me Kiev and Moscow should be providing a forum were 'breakaway' states of the past can discuss and provide some stability in the region and they have a long list of topics to deal with: Kosovo, Chechnya, Georgia, western anti-ballistic missile placement controversy etc. etc.

The world would be a less aggravated place if there existed a bipolar or even tripolar setup.

The west should welcome an opportunity to deal with a strong 'eastern' market place with some friendly competition and not take the tac as an opportunistic predator.

Maybe French PM Sarkozy could help provide some breathing space for the two waring parties but it sure looks bad now.

GoogleNaut · Guru

I think there is real opportunity for leadership here--I just wish the US could provide some meaningful leadership.

It is my fervent hope that something positive and meaningful will come of this...I would like to see more international cooperation, but sadly what we see all to often are countries falling into the same old, 'comfortable' knee jerk reactions...some of these animosities go back hundreds of years...in other cases the animosities go back thousands of years...

It will take a great deal of patient leadership and many changes of heart to overcome that...

I hope for the best.

G R L Cowan · Veteran Member

Why is Kiev so estranged from Russia? When Kiev was a provincial capital in the Russian empire, the central government didn't invite it in a non-refusable way to be host to any kind of dual-use civil/military installation that they would never have dreamt of having within 500 km of Moscow, did they?

--- G.R.L. Cowan, H2 energy fan 'til ~1996

10kBq Jaro · Senior Member

Democratic nations need to act together to fend off the bullies of this world.

But will it be enough ?

Radio Prague (Cesky Rozhlas 7 - Radio Praha)

News Thursday, August 14th, 2008

=============================

Condoleezza Rice: This is not 1968

------------------------------------------------------------------------

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Wednesday before departing for Europe that Russia would not get away with occupying another country, like it did Czechoslovakia in 1968. "This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia when Russia can threaten its neighbours, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it. Things have changed," Ms Rice told reporters.

In related news, Czech Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg said on Wednesday that the Czech Republic would like to take part in an EU observers' mission to Georgia. Speaking after an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels on Wednesday, Mr Schwarzenberg said that Georgia's sovereignty as well as territorial integrity must be fully respected.

===========================================

-- Edited by 10kBq Jaro at 00:10, 2008-08-15

-- Edited by 10kBq Jaro at 00:11, 2008-08-15

NUKE ROCKY44 · Senior Member

When Kiev was a provincial capital in the Russian empire, the central government didn't invite it in a non-refusable way to be host to any kind of dual-use civil/military installation that they would never have dreamt of having within 500 km of Moscow, did they?

Ok...got that. Kiev was in lock-down in old commie alliance.

Circa 2008. Both countries gov't currently practise some form of plurality. Which means they have to present policy to appeal to an electorate. Frankly, political organizations within respective political jurisdictions that present proposals that foster Ukrainian-Russian ties would probably appeal better than the current (independent) adversarial stance.

To me for both counties to take the attitude it's 'payback time' for past miscues only makes the problems worse in the region in the long run.

Personally critical mass has to form within a Ukrainian-Russian alliance for other countries in this vast region a sense of confidence to sign on to in insuring stability. smile

NUKE ROCKY44 · Senior Member

This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia when Russia can threaten its neighbours, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it. Things have changed.

Excuse me, but this is pure bluster. 'US/NATO clap trap' for western consumption.

Russian policy has allowed independence for breakaway states in the region but they won't stand for a power hungry states on a 'land grab' binge through force compromising civilian safety no matter what pretext they use to sell the flawed military operation.

There is no doubt Georgia will be in lock-down mode until there are assurances that hopefully through waring parties/peacekeeper nations a cease-and-desist hostile action monitoring takes hold with a temp. government and enough time elapses for general elections in Georgia to elect a new government.

Come on people lets get real...

NUKE ROCKY44 · Senior Member

Oh yea...almost forgot hopefully the ruskies don't commit the same mistakes the U.S. did in the first Gulf War. If you're going to commit to an effort don't do a half-ass-job of it.

GoogleNaut · Guru

I find it dangerous for both candidates (McCain and Obama) to be making huge foreign policy statements without studying situation or doing analysis of anykind.

McCain's "...we are All Georgians..." speech, which quickly capitlized on the situation for his own political gain, will be seen by the Russians not as "grand standing" but as a serious foreign policy statement if he becomes elected president.

With positioning short range ABM's in Poland, and talks about admitting Ukraine and Georgia to NATO--I kind of see this as a serious provocation--atleast from a Russian perspective if it's possible for me to see it that way.

I really hate the idea of the world back sliding back into a Cold War situation--but perhaps we've had blinders on for the last fifteen years: the Cold War really wasn't as over as everyone seemed to think.

I really hate to admit that, but "...if it quacks like a duck..."

On a side not: I can see this whole thing having much broader consequences: even NASA is worried about its Russian partnership, and Lockheed-Martin is probably taking a closer look at all of those RD-180 (about 15-25 I think) engines it bought from Russian for the Atlas-5. I predict that their may be an effort to reverse engineer those engines: we'll know for sure if in the subsequent weeks or months a new DOD rocket engine initiative is started with Lockheed-Martin...I'll be watching for that one! And effort to re-engine the Atlas-5 EELV will be a clear sign of the US termination of any further support from Russia in this regard--atleast, that's how I would interpret it.

-- Edited by GoogleNaut at 16:17, 2008-08-15

NUKE ROCKY44 · Senior Member

Off the bat:

What the ruskies should do is bring the 'Saakashvili crew' before a tribunal on charges of crimes against humanity.

"...what's good for the goose is good for the gander."

There is no doubt that Dumb & Dumber 'demoblicans' are committed to stupidity from the same people that control the purse strings with their grand vision of the 'new world order'.

The Polish/Czech US ABM's is no big deal. The Russians are engaged in the same kind of 'tough talk'... blah... blah the US/NATO is engaged in.

It nothing that electronic warfare can't counter. pound-for-pound of missile system delivery Russians do have more mobile range specific missiles example (Topal-M MIRV ICBM & Topal anti-ABM systems). And I suspect they will be updating them to counter US minuteman3 MIRV ICBM's or mid-range missiles in hard fixed silos and ABM's tailoring their ranges.

I think both have static and mobile launch systems.

Only because mobile launch systems are a first strike tool and static hard silos are more apt to survive an early missile exchange.

It's sad, but I think Pratt & Whitney company will be the one to suffer the most. That's a big shame because PW will effect North America and Russia and no doubt both space agencies will take longer to develop heavy lift propulsion plants for civi-space ventures.

Maybe even nuclear space propulsion/power R&D might suffer not that it was ever a big priority. Maybe the entire world power plant nuclear industry could suffer.

It's just one more reason how an insane unipolar 'new world order' screws-up business and development.

NUKE ROCKY44 · Senior Member

Earth surface (ground) based nuclear exchange strategies are at their maximum with mobile, hardened silos, missile/air/ship/sub based and silo buster systems all played out so far.

The only realm not played to the maximum is space and for that to happen you need 'wicked' power to be able to knock out your opponent's strike capacity not that I personally advocate going in that direction.

Being a realist Star Wars II could become a priority again. And that means nuke powered defensive and offensive space based systems would need to be pulled off the shelves on both U.S./Russian space military R&D efforts.

Which means most if not all there projects will be classified as black.
Where would that leave RSA, ESA, NASA the ISS and other international efforts? I think in the interim the INTERNATIONAL; 'INTER' part will be muted and the NATIONAL will get add emphasis. Meaning a tug-of-war with Russian desire to push its weight around on ISS.

So if the Russians show up at the ISS with a full contingent of 'party goers' as guests-who would deny them entry to the complex in space?

In either case some of the biggest advances in space for both countries came at a time of the original cold war. weirdface